A Prediction Model for the Animal Plague in Spermophilus dauricus Focus in China

Plague is a fatal infectious disease that causes serious harm to humans. Its occurrence threatens not only public life, but also economic development. Although the incidence of plague in China shows a downward trend, the risk of animal and human plague still persists. By analyzing the data of the Spermophilus dauricus focus in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 1981 to 2012, we established a statistical model to predict the epidemic of the animal plague, which combines the best subset regression method and the exponential smoothing method. According to the data from 1981 to 2011, the model predicted that there is no animal plague epidemic risk in 2012. This result is consistent with the report from the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the plague bacillus Yersinia pestis was not detected in the S. dauricus focus in 2012. In addition, our model can be extended to predict the epidemic of plague in other foci. Potential and limitations of the model are discussed.